BREXIT, then—FREXIT now?

In the latest survey conducted by Ifop France, 40% agreed to leave the European Union (EU), indicating Frexit may happen sooner than later—especially now that pro-Frexit politicians François Asselineau gaining popularity throughout France and the rising Euroscepticism among its people.

France was deeply inspired by the Brexit and saw a chance to finally sever ties with the EU, too, believing that Frexit will enable them to fix the country’s social and economic crisis.

A campaign poster supporting France leaving the EU. (English translation: Let's recover our democracy with François Asselineau.)

BREXIT and EU friction: The far-reaching effect of a falling out among stakeholders

"Friction is an inevitable side-effect of Brexit by nature," says European Council President Donald Tusk

The United Kingdom’s (UK) and the EU have a long standing history of bilateral integration spanning more than three decades. However, in 2016, the UK held a referendum aiming to finally settle whether or not it would cut loose from the EU. Turns out, the Brits were ready to fly solo.

Brexit has been considered a major hit against the EU’s political and economic integration. Now that the UK is certain of leaving the EU, let us take a look at some of its short and long-term effects – some of which may be lessons to be learned by other union of nation states like the Association of Southeast Asian Countries (ASEAN).

The Thai monarchy’s stakeholdership remains solid; and its popularity is strong even at the commercial malls levels.

Several studies were conducted to determine the extent of damage the UK would leave behind after the approval of the withdrawal agreement—one of which was conducted by the government itself in November 2018. They found that the UK’s economy would be worse off in the next 15 years compared to if it decides to stay as part of the EU.

In addition, whether it would be a Brexit deal or a no-deal at all, UK will still suffer economic losses, but with greater impact if it happens to be the latter.

Financial Times on the other hand reported that Brexit will be leaving 73 seats vacant in the 751-member EU assembly, 46 of which will be reserved for the time being for future member countries like Montenegro and Serbia, whereas the remaining 27 seats will go to existing members, mostly to Western European countries— reinforcing the view of Central and Eastern Europe that bigger western countries hold more power, reflecting their ‘bully’ attitude towards them.

BREXIT and FREXIT can total to a loss to all sides of about 20% or € 1200B+ of both import and export trade businesses vs. EU’s €6000B+.

As for the EU, two of its members—Denmark and Netherlands—already hinted they do not want to fill in the financial hole left by the UK in the EU budget. Other western countries are also pressured to continue aiding regional funds of Hungary and Poland among others.

Furthermore, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said that Brexit poses higher trade tariffs and will upset capital flows and labor mobility. Production and employment both in the UK and the remaining 27 EU member countries will also be affected. Lastly, a study done by a London School of Economics professor found that the UK might lose €10 billion in net annual income after the Brexit -- which would in turn greatly stir its economic environment.

Brexit poses several implications for both the UK and the EU. However, no study is certain of what the future really holds for both until precise conditions are agreed upon. Otherwise, we just have to wait and see until end-October this year.